Bitcoin's Short-Term Bullish Outlook Isn’t a Certainty

In the current cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin holds significant influence due to its substantial market capitalization. As it continues to navigate through fluctuating trading conditions, recent data indicates a temporary bullish outlook. However, this potential upswing is not without its uncertainties. The opening of the Bitcoin CME at around $87,470, essentially mirroring the Friday close, reveals no weekly gap. This pricing stability rests between the $87,000–$87,200 support zone on an hourly chart, drawing interest from investors after a notable drop from the $89,400 resistance. The critical point to watch is whether Bitcoin can maintain above this range, indicating a willingness from traders to invest for short-term gains. Such a scenario could propel Bitcoin towards the $88,200 and possibly even into the supply zone spanning $89,000 to $89,500. Nonetheless, persistent resistance near the $88,000 mark suggests weakening momentum. A dip below $87,000 might nullify the bullish sentiment and bring liquidity challenges between $86,200 and $86,500.

Decline in Network Activity and Its Implications

Data analysis from Ali Charts on X, using insights from Glassnode, indicate a substantial reduction in Bitcoin's active addresses, highlighting a 42.6% decline since 2021. Although active addresses peaked at 22.98 million in early 2021, the numbers dwindled to approximately 12.84 million by late 2025. This decline is viewed as an evolution towards Bitcoin being valued more as a store-of-value asset rather than a transactional currency. While a reduction in active network participants generally signals lower selling pressure, which could be interpreted as bullish, it also portends a possible downturn, with various technical signals pointing in this direction. Such a shift in user behavior may exacerbate an impending downtrend in Bitcoin’s market trajectory as it is accompanied by decline in other indicators.

Technical Indicators Highlight Potential Challenges

Examining technical data, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), alongside RSI and MACD, paints a nuanced picture of market dynamics. Data from CryptoQuant charts show SSR depicting a downward trend from August to December 2025, amidst Bitcoin's price spanning from about $86,000 to peaking at $126,000 by year-end. A diminishing SSR, which mirrors falling trading volumes, aligns with lowering RSI and shifting MACD values. Specifically, RSI indexed at 14 shrank from 45.51 to 30.03, signifying slowing momentum, while MACD transitioned from 0.038 to -0.135, confirming negative divergence. These indicators reflect a foreboding backdrop of a potential downtrend. While Bitcoin remains buoyed in bullish sentiment for the short term, it's evident from these technical insights that a bullish outcome is not a foregone conclusion. The present indicators, combined with subdued liquidity, suggest a complex landscape as Bitcoin navigates the close of 2025.

Source: Why Bitcoin Price Short-Term Bullish Outlook Isn’t Guaranteed, published on The Market Periodical.